What it measures
Prediction-market odds that the US CLARITY Act — the crypto market-structure law — is signed in 2026. Regulatory clarity would unlock capital across every thesis; this reads the market’s expectation, not a certainty.
This gauge shows the live prediction-market probability that the CLARITY Act — the US crypto market-structure bill — is signed into law in 2026. Instead of quoting pundits, it reads the odds where people stake real money on the outcome.
How to read it
Prediction-market prices approximate probabilities: 40 means the market collectively prices a 40 % chance of passage. Readings below ~35 say clarity is not priced in; the middle band is a genuine coin toss; above ~65 the market leans toward passage. The number moves on committee schedules, amendments and floor votes — often before the news cycle catches up. It is an expectation, not a certainty: markets have been confidently wrong before.
Frequently asked questions
What is the CLARITY Act?
A US market-structure bill that would define which digital assets fall under securities versus commodities law and which agency regulates them. For crypto it is the single most consequential piece of pending US legislation, because regulatory clarity gates institutional capital across every thesis.
Why use prediction-market odds instead of expert forecasts?
Because traders on prediction markets stake money on being right, their aggregated price has historically tracked political outcomes better than commentary. The odds update continuously and reflect new information — hearings, amendments, vote counts — within minutes.
Where does this probability come from?
From Polymarket: the live price via its Gamma API and the full daily trading history via its CLOB price-history endpoint. Moonkelp reads both directly; if the market resolves, the gauge retires automatically.
Data & method
Collected automatically by the Moonkelp agent, validated against plausibility bands before anything is written. How the pipeline works →
Related indicators
This indicator is one tile of the daily briefing —read today’s full market picture →