Research · the receipts
We built Moonkelp on these findings. Check our work.
Moonkelp’s product thesis isn’t a hunch — it’s the conclusion of four in-depth research studies. Two measure where information actually lives — across crypto media and general news. One maps the investment theses the market is built on; one puts the famous prediction charts to the test. We publish all four, in full, because the argument for the product is the research.
These are the receipts: every claim on the homepage traces back to one of the four studies below.
Study 01 · 710 crypto channels
The loudest crypto channels aren’t the most useful
Across 710 measured channels, reach predicts value not at all — and at the very top it turns against the reader.
Almost everything you read is an echo of 5–10 original sources. 710 channels measured and ordered by the 15 investment theses — because the same source can carry one thesis and contribute nothing to the next.
Read the studyStudy 02 · 15 market theses
The 15 big bets the crypto market runs on
Ranked by maturity and how strongly each drives the market — triangulated from 3 independent signals.
Built from investor surveys, capital allocation and search interest. 22 of 25 underlying claims verified against primary sources.
Read the studyStudy 03 · 98 news sources
In the news, bigger reach doesn’t mean better
98 German + English sources. Reach predicts value just as little — the same picture as in crypto.
Half the news world is an echo of five wire agencies. A genuinely neutral world-view takes about four sources.
Read the studyStudy 04 · 7 prediction charts
The famous Bitcoin charts, rebuilt and tested
Fitted on early data and extended without adjustment, 5 of 7 fail out of sample.
Rainbow, power law, the four-year cycle, Pi Cycle, stock-to-flow, Golden Ratio, Hash Ribbons — rebuilt from the raw price series. Two describe something real.
Read the studyPerspectives, not investment advice. Scores are reasoned editorial judgment based on the documented public record, not an objective index.