What it measures
Capital locked in prediction markets (Polymarket & co.) — the thesis measured in dollars at stake.
This gauge measures the capital locked in on-chain prediction markets — Polymarket foremost among them. It sizes the thesis that decentralized prediction markets become lasting information and betting infrastructure, measured in dollars actually at stake.
How to read it
Prediction markets are crypto’s clearest recent consumer breakout: mainstream media quote Polymarket odds, and volume arrives around every major election, court ruling and macro event. The structural question is what remains between events — TVL that persists through quiet months signals infrastructure, TVL that drains signals an event-driven casino. Regulatory risk is the standing threat: gambling-law enforcement could reprice the category overnight.
Theses riding on this indicator
Moonkelp reads every indicator through investment theses — pick yours and the daily briefing shows what supports or threatens it.
Frequently asked questions
How do prediction markets work?
Traders buy and sell shares in event outcomes; prices settle between 0 and 1 and read directly as probabilities. A share of “yes” at 0.40 implies the market prices a 40 % chance. Correct predictions redeem at 1, so accuracy is directly rewarded.
Are prediction-market odds reliable?
They have a strong track record against polls and pundits because participants stake money on being right, and prices update within minutes of new information. They remain probabilities, not prophecies — 40 % events happen four times out of ten.
Where does this data come from?
From DeFiLlama’s prediction-market category, refreshed daily by the Moonkelp agent. Moonkelp also reads a specific market directly: the CLARITY-Act odds gauge comes straight from Polymarket.
Data & method
Collected automatically by the Moonkelp agent, validated against plausibility bands before anything is written. How the pipeline works →
Related indicators
This indicator is one tile of the daily briefing —read today’s full market picture →