What it measures
The inflation-adjusted price of money — the true opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no interest, and the cleanest macro driver of the digital-gold case.
The 10-year real yield is the Treasury yield after expected inflation — measured directly from inflation-protected bonds (TIPS). It is the true opportunity cost of holding assets that pay nothing, which makes it the single cleanest macro driver of the store-of-value case for Bitcoin and gold.
How to read it
When real yields are negative, safe bonds guarantee a loss of purchasing power — the strongest possible tailwind for hard assets, and the regime in which both gold and Bitcoin have historically done their best work. Around zero to one percent, competition is mild. Above ~2 %, risk-free paper genuinely preserves and grows purchasing power, and the case for non-yielding stores of value has to fight uphill. The series crosses zero, so watch the level and direction, not percentage changes.
| < 0 % | Negative real yields — the strongest tailwind for stores of value |
| 0 – 1 % | Low real yields — little competition for hard assets |
| 1 – 2 % | A moderate headwind for the digital-gold case |
| > 2 % | High real yields compete hard with non-yielding assets |
Theses riding on this indicator
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Frequently asked questions
What is a real yield?
The nominal bond yield minus expected inflation. It is observed directly in the market as the yield on 10-year TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities), so it needs no forecast: it is what a bond actually pays after inflation compensation.
Why are real yields more important for Bitcoin than nominal yields?
Because the store-of-value argument is about purchasing power. A 5 % nominal yield with 5 % inflation pays nothing real — no competition for hard assets. The real yield strips inflation out and measures the genuine opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin or gold instead of bonds.
Can real yields be negative?
Yes — for most of 2020–2022 the 10-year real yield was below zero, meaning safe bonds guaranteed a real loss. Those regimes have historically been the most supportive for gold and Bitcoin.
Data & method
Collected automatically by the Moonkelp agent, validated against plausibility bands before anything is written. How the pipeline works →
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