What it measures
Market value vs realized value — the on-chain valuation gauge for Bitcoin cycles.
MVRV divides Bitcoin’s market capitalization by its realized capitalization — the value of every coin priced at the time it last moved on-chain. In plain terms: it compares today’s price with the average cost basis of everyone holding Bitcoin. That makes it the cleanest on-chain valuation gauge for Bitcoin cycles.
How to read it
When MVRV falls below 1, the average holder is under water — historically the signature of capitulation floors. Between 1 and 2 holders sit on moderate profit, the market’s normal state. Above 3, aggregate unrealized profit has become so large that selling pressure builds; every major cycle top has printed in that region. MVRV is slow and structural: it will not time a top or bottom to the week, but it has framed every Bitcoin cycle to date.
| < 1 | Below aggregate cost basis — historically capitulation territory |
| 1 – 2 | Holders in profit, but far from euphoria |
| 2 – 3 | Elevated unrealized profit — sell pressure builds |
| > 3 | Historically overheated — cycle-top territory |
Theses riding on this indicator
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Frequently asked questions
What does MVRV stand for?
Market Value to Realized Value. Market value is the ordinary market cap; realized value prices each coin at the time it last moved on-chain, approximating the aggregate cost basis of all holders.
Why does MVRV mark cycle tops and bottoms?
Because it measures unrealized profit and loss across the whole market. When almost everyone is deep in profit (high MVRV), the incentive to sell is at its strongest; when the average holder is at a loss (MVRV below 1), forced and discouraged sellers have largely finished. Both extremes have framed every Bitcoin cycle so far.
Where does Moonkelp’s MVRV data come from?
From the Coin Metrics Community API (the CapMVRVCur metric), refreshed with every agent cycle. The chart shows a downsampled history so the page stays fast; the zones and current reading use the exact latest value.
Data & method
Collected automatically by the Moonkelp agent, validated against plausibility bands before anything is written. How the pipeline works →
Related indicators
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