What it measures
Bitcoin vs its 200-day trend — a long-term valuation gauge for the cycle.
The Mayer Multiple divides Bitcoin’s current price by its 200-day moving average. It answers one question: how far has price stretched away from its own long-term trend? A value of 1.0 means Bitcoin trades exactly at trend; 2.0 means it trades at twice its 200-day average.
How to read it
Because the 200-day average moves slowly, the Multiple is a cycle gauge rather than a trading signal. Historically, readings below about 0.8 were rare and marked deep bear-market territory, while sustained readings above roughly 2.4 accompanied late-cycle overheating. The gauge says nothing about timing — markets can stay stretched for months — but it tells you honestly which regime you are in.
| < 0.8 | Deep below the 200-day trend — rare, historically depressed |
| 0.8 – 1.2 | Near the long-term trend |
| 1.2 – 2.4 | Above trend — expansion territory |
| > 2.4 | Historically overheated territory |
Frequently asked questions
What is the Mayer Multiple?
It is Bitcoin’s price divided by its 200-day simple moving average — a measure of how far price has stretched above or below its own long-term trend. It was popularized by investor Trace Mayer.
What is a “good” Mayer Multiple value?
There is no good or bad value, only context: below ~0.8 has historically marked depressed, late-bear conditions; above ~2.4 has accompanied overheated, late-bull conditions. Most of the time the Multiple sits unremarkably in between.
How is this different from MVRV?
Both compare price to a reference, but the reference differs: the Mayer Multiple uses the 200-day price trend, while MVRV uses the on-chain cost basis of all coins. Reading them together separates “stretched vs its trend” from “stretched vs what holders paid”.
Data & method
Collected automatically by the Moonkelp agent, validated against plausibility bands before anything is written. How the pipeline works →
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