Store of value

Bulls argue the divergence between euphoric equity records and bitcoin's flat action is exactly the kind of quiet capitulation phase that has historically preceded bottoms, pointing to continued spot ETF inflows and the coldest reading on Glassnode's cycle basket since the FTX collapse as evidence sellers are exhausted. They see this as an accumulation window rather than a warning, arguing bitcoin's failure to chase the stock rally reflects patient positioning, not investor abandonment.

Bulls argue that whale accumulation during price weakness is a classic contrarian signal: large, sophisticated holders adding to bitcoin, ether and XRP positions while retail sentiment is depressed has historically preceded market bottoms. They point to ether trading below realized value as evidence the asset is undervalued fundamentally, and see quiet, unhurried buying by XRP whales as smart money positioning ahead of a recovery rather than chasing a rally that hasn't materialized.

Bulls argue that SpaceX choosing not to sell any bitcoin during the quarter, even amid heavy capital expenditure and a paper loss on its holdings, shows genuine long-term conviction in bitcoin as a treasury asset from one of the world's most closely watched newly public companies. They see continued institutional buying, including Ark Invest adding shares after the report, as reinforcing confidence in the surrounding ecosystem even as the stock digests near-term unlock and spending concerns unrelated to the bitcoin position.

Bulls argue that if an overleveraged AI infrastructure boom does eventually crack, the resulting government bailouts and monetary expansion would be exactly the kind of fiat-debasement catalyst that has historically driven bitcoin higher, positioning it as a direct beneficiary of the next liquidity cycle. They see Hayes's framing as a coherent macro thesis linking speculative AI capex excess to bitcoin's hard-money value proposition, rewarding patient holders once the credit cycle eventually turns.

Bulls argue that weak headline hiring alongside accelerating pay strengthens the case for the Fed to eventually cut rather than raise rates, since slowing job growth is the kind of labor-market cooling officials have said they want before easing. Looser future monetary policy and improved liquidity conditions would be broadly supportive for risk assets including bitcoin and crypto, reinforcing the case for hard money in an era of eventually looser policy.

Bulls argue this is a firmware-specific flaw, not a flaw in Bitcoin itself, and the ecosystem's rapid, transparent response — Galaxy's public tracking, exchanges flagging suspicious transfers, Coldcard urging fund migration — shows the self-custody culture maturing rather than collapsing. Dormant coins moving to safety and record exchange inflows demonstrate holders actively defending their keys instead of losing faith. Proponents see this as a forcing function that will harden hardware wallet standards, push better entropy generation, and ultimately strengthen the self-custody thesis Bitcoin depends on for long-term credibility as sound money outside custodial control.

Bulls argue that Bitcoin holding steady near $64,000 while equities set fresh records shows resilience and reduced correlation to acute geopolitical shocks, since bitcoin didn't need a Hormuz resolution to stay supported. A de-escalating Middle East conflict and falling oil prices ease inflation and shipping-cost pressures globally, which could free up liquidity that eventually flows into crypto. If the broader risk-on mood from record equities persists, it historically has preceded renewed capital rotation into bitcoin and altcoins as investors chase returns further out the risk curve.

Bulls argue that coordinated central-bank intervention to stabilize the yen reduces the risk of a disorderly unwind of the yen carry trade, which has historically been a major source of forced liquidations across global risk assets, including crypto. By calming currency volatility early, policymakers may prevent a much larger liquidity shock that could otherwise force leveraged deleveraging across markets. A stabilized yen also removes one source of systemic tail risk that bitcoin bulls worry could trigger a broader risk-off cascade in coming months.

Bulls argue that if AI infrastructure spending is indeed built on unsustainable leverage, an eventual credit unwind and resulting government stimulus would validate Bitcoin's core monetary debasement thesis, since renewed money printing to backstop failing AI bets would directly support the hardest-money-against-fiat-debasement narrative. Hayes has a track record of identifying macro leverage dynamics, and a bailout-driven liquidity surge has historically been bullish for scarce assets like Bitcoin. Positioning ahead of such a scenario could reward long-term holders handsomely if the thesis plays out as described.