Store of value

Bears counter that bitcoin's relative stability masked real fragility: it still dipped below $63,000 intraday, mining stocks lagged the rotation, and Decrypt flagged technical signs the rebound was a bull trap. If AI-driven equity weakness deepens into a broader risk-off unwind, correlated selling could resume and crypto would not stay insulated for long. The scale of the Kospi's collapse — pausing trading after an 8% slump — shows how fast sentiment can turn, a risk crypto markets are not immune to.

Bears counter that a real minority of serious players, including Citadel Securities and UBS, are positioning for a surprise hike, and prediction markets are pricing rising odds of exactly that outcome. A hawkish surprise into an already jittery, selloff-driven market could hit bitcoin hard, especially with elevated energy prices complicating the Fed's calculus. CNBC noted the Fed faces a genuinely difficult tradeoff between inflation risks and AI capex tailwinds, leaving little room for a clean, unambiguous outcome either way.

Bears see a former bitcoin miner paying tens of millions of dollars just to exit its ASIC commitments and pivot toward AI as a signal that bitcoin mining economics have deteriorated enough that even industry veterans are abandoning the business model. If more public miners follow, it could slow network hashpower growth and dilute the hard-money-backed-by-infrastructure narrative.

Bears counter that self-custody is only as safe as the software users trust to hold their keys, and a fake wallet allegedly surviving on Apple's App Store after a theft was already reported shows how easily retail users can be misled into losing real bitcoin. Cases like this, with over $1.8 million allegedly stolen across just three users, undercut the case that ordinary investors can safely self-custody without institutional-grade protections.

Bears counter that a rate-hike probability jumping to 27% in prediction markets signals real tail risk that options traders may be underpricing, and that an unpredictable Fed chairman raises the odds of a hawkish surprise. A surprise hike would tighten financial conditions and could trigger the kind of leverage unwind that hits bitcoin hardest, especially with downside hedges already stripped away from the market.

Bears see five consecutive weeks without a bitcoin purchase as a signal that the market's largest corporate buyer is stepping back precisely when its enormous BTC position sits deeply underwater, raising questions about whether the treasury model can keep scaling. They argue redirecting cash into share buybacks rather than bitcoin undercuts the core thesis that originally drew investors into MSTR stock.

Bears counter this looks like a relief rally, not fresh conviction — Glassnode itself describes the move as cautious consolidation with continued ETF outflows and muted on-chain activity. The truce could unravel and send oil back up, reintroducing risk-off pressure. More importantly, the ceasefire mainly clears the stage for the Fed meeting, where a hawkish surprise could hit crypto harder than the truce helped it.

Bears note the bounce looks largely like a relief rally tied to external geopolitical de-escalation and falling oil rather than organic crypto-specific demand. An elevated roughly 4.7% 10-year yield and a heavy week of corporate earnings could easily shift sentiment again, and analysts already describe bitcoin as staying range-bound near $65,000 rather than breaking out. That suggests the move reflects macro relief more than a durable shift in crypto-specific fundamentals or sustained buying pressure.

Bears note four straight weeks without a purchase, alongside a roughly $9.3 billion unrealized loss on the position, raises questions about whether Strategy's capital-raising capacity to keep buying bitcoin at scale is tightening. Saylor's vague 'another color' comment offered no clarity on financing plans, leaving room for the pause to reflect real constraints rather than mere timing. An extended silence without explanation could unsettle investors already watching the underwater cost basis closely as bitcoin trades well below Strategy's average purchase price.